Post-recurrence 5-year Conditional Survival in Pulmonary Adenocarcinoma
Samina Park, MD, Kwanyong Hyun, MD, Yoo Hwa Hwang, MD, Hyun Joo Lee, MD, PhD, In Kyu Park, MD, PhD, Young Tae Kim, MD, PhD, Chang Hyun Kang, MD, PhD
Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
Background : Evidence regarding the improvement of long term post-recurrence survival (PRS) in non-small cell lung cancer is scarce. For ongoing cancer survivors, conditional survival estimates can predict relative long term survival at specific point. Therefore, we aimed to identify 5-year conditional survival (5Y-CS) probability in patients who had recurrence after surgical resection.
Methods : From January 2002 to April 2011, 1235 patients underwent surgical resection for pulmonary adenocarcinoma in a single institution. We excluded patient who had stage IV lung cancer (n=63). 404(34.5%) patients developed recurrence during follow up period. Mean follow-up duration was 61 months. We estimated 5-year CS in each specific year after recurrence as following equation; CS(X+Y│Y) is defined as the ‘X’ year survival probability of patients who had already survived ‘Y’ year after recurrence.
Results : Excluding 12 incomplete survival data, a total of 392 patients were included. 1, 3, and 5-year PRS were 77%, 48% and 27%, respectively. 5Y-CS improved after 2 years remarkably(Fig-A). The difference between stage II and stage III has disappeared since 1 year after recurrence, while the difference between stage I and stage II/III remained for 6 to 10 years(Fig-B). Patients aged <60 had better 5-year PRS than those aged ≥60. For patients aged ≥60, 5Y-CS remained lower than that for those aged <60. Furthermore, the clear difference in 5Y-CS curves between two age groups remained consistently(Fig-C). Male group had significantly worse 5-year PRS than female group; however, 5Y-CS of male group quickly improved and reached to that of female. Subsequently, there was only slight difference between sexes after 3 years(Fig-D).
Conclusion : We demonstrated fair 5Y-CS after recurrence in pulmonary adenocarcinoma. Old age and advanced stage were associated with worse 5Y-CS after recurrence. Those results may serve comprehensive information for patients and physician to update cancer prognosis in the era of various alternative treatment for recurrence.

책임저자: Chang Hyun Kang
Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
발표자: Samina Park, E-mail : saminapark1203@gmail.com